At Pineapple Parlays we strive to promote an honest and transparent gambling strategy. We know that it is very difficult to maintain long-term sports gambling success. It is not easy to acquire all of the information needed to capture trends and measure team success. Evaluating matchups between pitchers and teams is also troublesome. With all of that in mind, we maintain a consistent strategy based on expected value.

We try to estimate the probability of each team winning the game they are planing each day. We compare our estimates to vegas odds. If we think a team has a better chance of winning than vegas is giving them, then we consider that a positive expected value bet, meaning we expect long-term profit from that bet.

Our strategy is tough to deploy because it relies on data that accrues throughout the season. We cannot, in good faith, begin making predictions until about 55 games into the season because averages don’t mean much until then.

Our strategy was wildly successful in 2023, but considerably less successful in 2024. There are many reasons that we believe caused this huge shift in success, but we believe 2024 to be the disturbance from the norm and trust that the 2023 season was more reflective of how we will perform on average.

Thank you for following Pineapple Parlays and promoting our analyses to your friends!

Profit from 2023 mlb season (Late start).

The plot above shows our 2023 success. The 2024 season has not finished yet.